The decreasing costs and improving operational efficiency of Lithium-ion batteries are some of the biggest factors causing the increasing adoption of commercial electric vehicles across the world. As per the industry experts, the average cost of lithium-ion battery packs for bulk orders decreased from approximately $642/kWh in 2012 to almost $209/kWh in 2017. As batteries account for nearly 40% of the total manufacturing cost of a commercial electric vehicle, their declining prices will significantly boost the manufacturing and sales of the commercial electric vehicles.
The other major factor responsible for the ballooning sales of commercial electric vehicles is the lower operational costs of these vehicles as compared to the conventionally used fossil fuels-powered vehicles. In addition to this, their numerous environmental benefits are increasing their popularity in several countries, especially the developing nations which are dealing with soaring pollution levels and environmental hazards. According to the Indian Infrastructure Publishing, an electric bus saves $365,000 of diesel fuel during its entire life cycle and $225,000 of compressed natural gas (CNG).
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Driven by the above-mentioned factors, the revenue generated from the worldwide sales of commercial electric vehicles is expected to rise from $144.5 billion in 2017 to $362.7 billion by 2025. The global commercial electric vehicle market is predicted to advance at a CAGR of 13.3% during the forecast period (2018–2025). There are two types of commercial electric vehicles available in the market — electric buses and electric trucks. Of these, the electric trucks recorded higher sales in 2017. This is owing to the banning diesel trucks in many countries and the burgeoning demand for the transportation of goods around the world.
On the basis of batteries, the commercial electric vehicles are classified into lithium–nickel–manganese–cobalt oxide (NMC)-battery-powered vehicles and the vehicles running on lithium–iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Between the two types of batteries, LFP batteries are predicted to register higher sales in the market during the forecast period. This is mainly ascribed to the fact that the LFP batters are safer than the others and are therefore preferred more by both manufacturers and consumers than the NMC batteries.
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Hence, it can be said with full confidence that the demand for commercial electric vehicles will rise considerably throughout the world, in the coming years, because of the declining prices of the Lithium-ion batteries, increasing pollution levels, lower operating costs of these vehicles than the fossil fuels-powered vehicles, and the presence of favorable government policies regarding the deployment of commercial vehicles in several countries.