The global smart thermostat market size is expected to reach USD 6.4 billion by 2026 from USD 2.5 billion in 2021, growing at a CAGR of 12.0%. The key factors driving the growth of the market include increasing adoption of smart homes attributed to COVID-19 situation, emergence of IoT-enabled HVAC systems, government regulations pertaining to increase energy efficiency of buildings, and surging adoption of smart home voice assistants. However, high manufacturing and installation costs of smart thermostats, and concerns regarding data security are the factors restraining the growth of the smart thermostat market.

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The smart thermostat market for learning smart thermostat is expected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The learning smart thermostat is not required to be programmed on a regular basis like the connected thermostat. It is a premium device preferred by smart home owners for residential applications. The segment is expected to grow at the highest rate during the forecast period as it is easy to use and equipped with advanced technologies. Besides, the increasing number of smart homes across North America and Europe is fueling the growth of the learning smart thermostat segment.

The wireless network is expected to account for a larger share of the overall smart thermostat market. Wireless network is the most widely used connectivity technology in smart thermostats as it helps to reduce the installation and maintenance costs, provides higher flexibility and scalability, and better connectivity. The installation of wireless connectivity makes smart thermostats more compatible with smart devices such as smartphones, tablets, and laptops for operation. The increasing adoption of smart homes in the US is fueling the demand for smart thermostats based on wireless connectivity technology.

The new installation type is expected to account for a larger share of the overall smart thermostat market. Rapid infrastructure developments, improved standard of living, and increased focus on developing energy-efficient HVAC systems are fueling the growth of the smart thermostat market for new installation. Implementation of various government regulations to deploy energy-efficient HVAC systems and controls has resulted in the wide adoption of smart thermostats in new buildings. These factors have led to the higher growth of the new installation segment.

The residential vertical is expected to account for the largest share of the overall smart thermostat market by 2026. Th The growing awareness regarding energy conservation & efficiency and environmental protection has fueled the adoption of energy-efficient HVAC controls such as smart thermostats. They help in the optimum utilization of energy and maintaining the most comfortable and healthy environment indoors. Favorable government regulations and tax credit facilities on the installation of HVAC systems and the increasing focus of end users on reducing electricity bills have significantly contributed to the growth of the smart thermostat market for the residential vertical. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the growth of the residential vertical by affecting individual economies. The growth is also impacted by the supply and demand disruptions in the US, Germany, China, and Australia. The critical impacts on the smart thermostat market for the residential vertical are the increased economic slowdown due to travel restrictions and reduced consumer demand due to lockdowns. The shortage of supply is expected to increase prices of HVAC control systems and related components and equipment in countries such as the US, Australia, and Germany, which are highly dependent on Chinese players for operations.

The smart thermostat market is expected to register the highest CAGR in APAC. APAC has been a major contributor to the growth of the smart thermostat market as the construction industry, which is the primary end user of smart thermostats, is expanding at a healthy rate. The growing population in developing countries of this region, along with environmental awareness, is supporting the adoption of HVAC controls, such as smart thermostats. The rise in the adoption of green buildings and government initiatives to regulate energy-efficient practices across the commercial sector is also aiding the adoption of smart thermostats in the region. However, the regional market is expected to witness a decline in market size attributed to the halt of both ongoing and new infrastructure development projects due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, as the pandemic has also affected individual per capita income, the adoption of new HVAC systems in the residential segment has significantly decreased. However, this loss is expected to be recovered in the coming years with a gradual recovery of the overall economy.

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The major opportunities for the growth of the smart thermostat market include increasing demand for self-learning devices, and growing demand for cloud computing in HVAC industry. Automatic functioning is required by end users as it helps in reducing manual work and is more convenient. Therefore, self-learning energy-saving devices are being increasingly preferred to reduce energy consumption. The self-learning mode of smart thermostats and their ability to be remotely operated through smartphones and tablets make them more suitable for residential and commercial applications. The increasing adoption of these self-learning devices among residential applications is expected to create an opportunity for the market players to increase their share in the residential vertical. The use of self-learning devices will also aid the older people in operating HVAC equipment without the need to handle complex programming themselves.