Kenje Group KJG says it has not been surprised by the surge in gold prices in 2016. The precious metal, which has become a byword for poor performance in recent years thanks to the robust strength of the US dollar, has seen its price jump by almost 15% this year as doubts emerge over the trajectory for US interest rates.

Markets have begun to doubt that the Federal Reserve will be able to increase interest rates further this year because of the potential for a recession in the US and slowing growth elsewhere in the world, most notably in China and Europe.

It’s as if someone lit a fire under gold prices,” enthused a Kenje Group KJG commodities analyst. “Gold jumped by as much as $60 in one trading session last week which suggests that a lot of investors are bypassing more expedient safe-haven assets like the yen or the Swiss franc and hiding out in gold,” he continued.

Kenje Group has long advocated clients hold a proportion of their portfolios in gold and silver as insurance for a crisis in the financial markets and a subsequent loss of confidence in fiat currencies but, despite the recent gains, the firm sounded a note of caution.

“The recent price action in gold might tempt investors to jump aboard but increases of this magnitude in such a short space of time tend to be the result of knee jerk reactions to a sudden change in sentiment and there will be a pullback as investors take profits,” cautioned the Kenje Group KJG analyst.

The firm has told clients to exercise caution but to consider acquiring additional gold holdings on pullbacks below $1150, some $80 below current prices.