For the Quarter Ending September 2023


North America

Tall oil prices in the third quarter experienced a fluctuating pattern. In July and August, prices surged by 3.31% and 7.60%, respectively, propelled by dwindling inventories among market providers and heightened demand from end-user businesses. July witnessed a decline in production output, resulting in a short supply of Tall oil. However, sustained demand from the paper, pulp, and mining sectors maintained high prices. Despite a manufacturing sector decrease in the United States for the eleventh consecutive month in August, the rate of decline moderated, suggesting potential stabilization. Although new order inquiries rose, Tall oil prices faced a significant drop in September, aligning with a slowdown in manufacturing and a surge in order decreases. Consumers grappled with ongoing inflation and historically high interest rates, fostering economic uncertainty and diminished confidence throughout September.

Asia Pacific

Tall oil prices in the third quarter displayed a diverse trajectory. A modest increase of 0.67% in July was followed by declines of 5.00% and 1.40% in August and September, respectively. July's rise was attributed to heightened end-user demand and reduced market stocks. A 12.4% decline in imports into China in July constrained Tall oil supply, supporting price increases. However, a global demand slowdown in August contributed to falling Tall oil prices as the Chinese economy decelerated. Reduced imports and exports in August, along with destocking efforts by suppliers during annual vacations and the mid-autumn festival, further lowered Tall oil demand and prices. In September, the strengthening Chinese yuan against the US dollar facilitated lower Tall oil import costs, encouraging domestic production expansion and subsequently reducing Tall oil prices in the Chinese market.

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Europe

Tall oil pricing trends in Finland during the third quarter exhibited a broad spectrum of patterns. A 2.14% increase in July resulted from growing end-user demand and diminishing inventory among merchants. Unfavorable weather conditions in France disrupted transportation networks, causing delayed supply periods and elevating Tall oil costs. However, prices declined by 2.80% and 2.88% in August and September, respectively. Economic prospects were below the long-term average, particularly in manufacturing, where consumer spending declined. Despite a modest improvement from July, consumer confidence remained negative in August. Tall oil prices witnessed a significant drop in September, attributed to persistent high inflation straining consumer spending power and an excess of inventory in warehouses prompting market providers to lower prices for swift clearance.