For the Quarter Ending September 2023



North America

In the third quarter of 2023, rapeseed oil prices in North America, particularly in the United States, exhibited fluctuating market sentiments. Prices saw an initial uptick until the middle of the quarter, followed by a sharp decline in September 2023. The initial surge was propelled by heightened demand for rapeseed oil in crucial exporting regions, fostering a positive trade momentum in northern markets. However, this surge was not an isolated occurrence but rather a result of intricate interactions involving changing supply and demand dynamics, inflation in input costs, and economic factors. The upswing in demand led to bulk ordering, accelerating consumption and depleting already scarce supplies, consequently driving up prices. Additionally, the marginal increase in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in August 2023, from an initial reading of 47 to 47.9, was accompanied by an 18.6-point surge in aggregate logistics costs, reaching 175.3 in August. Nonetheless, as September 2023 approached, the drop in rapeseed oil prices in the US market was attributed to rising local inventory levels. A decrease in coking coal prices contributed to lower fuel costs, undermining cost support, while increased inventories dissuaded domestic buyers from placing substantial orders. Furthermore, a minor uptick in upstream production contributed to an increased availability of rapeseed oil.

Asia Pacific

During the third quarter of 2023, there was a downward trend in the price of rapeseed oil in the Asia Pacific region. The pricing trajectory at the beginning of the quarter indicated an upward trend due to heightened downstream demand, which was offset by elevated inventory levels. Additionally, the rising cost of raw materials, such as rapeseed seeds, escalated the production cost of rapeseed oil. Businesses faced heightened cost pressures in August due to rising fuel and raw material prices. Despite this, increased market competition led to a reduction in inflation, prompting some businesses to offer product discounts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 121.20 points in July 2023 to 122.50 points in August 2023. However, as September approached, rapeseed oil prices experienced a decline, attributed to reduced demand, particularly noticeable in the Philippines. Consequently, as the third quarter of 2023 concluded in September, the market witnessed a brief downturn in the price of rapeseed oil.

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Europe

Reflecting the market sentiment, the price of rapeseed oil in North America exhibited an upward trend during the third quarter of 2023 until August. The persistent increase in local demand was the driving force behind this price surge. However, as September approached, prices started to decrease. The surge in rapeseed oil prices up to August was primarily fueled by rising domestic demand in the local market. Unfavorable weather conditions, such as floods and other climate-related events in major exporting nations like India, significantly impacted rapeseed production. Notably, India, a key producer of rapeseed oil, faced production challenges due to weather disruptions. Nevertheless, towards the end of the third quarter in September 2023, prices experienced a considerable drop, leading to an accumulation of excess inventories among merchants and balancing the overall supply-demand dynamics.